The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority advises that the water levels in Lake Simcoe are currently 219.35 m and are well above average for this time of year. Shoreline flooding is imminent or occurring in shoreline communities.
The Lake Simcoe watershed has received approximately 60-90 mm of rainfall over the last five days. An additional 15-25 mm of rainfall is forecast for today and through Saturday, with locally higher amounts where thunderstorms occur.
Westerly winds are forecast for today at 15 km/hr with gusts up to 30 km/hr.
On Friday evening the wind will be from the southeast at 19 km/hr with gusts up to 29 km/hr. On Saturday the wind will continue from the southeast at 37 km/hr with gusts up to 56 km/hr. Winds acting on the high lake levels create waves, increasing the risk and extent of shoreline flooding that is already imminent or occurring.
Rainfall combined with flows working through the system continue to drive lake levels upward. These higher-than-average water levels are already causing flooding in some areas and are posing a significant risk of flooding along the Lake Simcoe Shoreline. Flooding is occurring in low-lying shoreline areas, including the Jackson’s Point, Georgina and Ramara areas. There is a high risk of dikes overtopping and failing in the Keswick, Kolbar and Bradford polders. Depending on the wind conditions, there may be localized storm surge/seiche effects, leading to increased flooding.
Portions of the lake ice have melted and the remaining ice is expected to break up soon. Some ice remains and ice pile-up on shorelines is possible.
Lake Simcoe water level
Currently the lake level is approximately 30 centimetres higher than the average for this time of the year. The current water-level in Lake Simcoe is 219.35 m and is expected to increase further.
The following is a summary of the recent water levels on Lake Simcoe:
April 16, 2026 (current):219.35
April 15, 2026: 219.27 m
April 13, 2026: 219.23 m
April 8, 2026: 219.19 m
March 31, 2026: 219.06 m
Water safety
Exercise extreme caution around all bodies of water. Alert any children under your care to stay away from all watercourses and other bodies of water; and supervise their activities.
Residents, especially in the historically flood-prone areas, are advised to take necessary precautions to protect themselves, their pets, and their property. Municipalities and property owners in low-lying shoreline areas should prepare for flooding and be advised that sandbagging may be needed. Evacuation of residents from low-lying areas may become necessary should dikes or berms in the Keswick, Kolbar and Bradford polders fail or overtop.
This Shoreline Hazard Watch – High Risk will be in effect through April 30, 2026, or until otherwise updated. This replaces the Shoreline Hazard Watch – High Risk statement issued on April 15, 2026.
For further information, contact duty officer Philip Thase at 905-895-1281.