The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority advises that the water levels in Lake Simcoe are currently 219.32 m and are approximately 22 cm above average for this time of year.
The lake level appears to be slowing declining and outflows from Lake Simcoe are maximized. However, the water levels in the lake remain dependent on rainfall that is received and could increase in response to further rain. Shoreline flooding is occurring in low-lying areas close to the lake and water levels are expected to remain higher than average in the coming weeks.
The Lake Simcoe watershed has received a minimal amount of rainfall of 2.2 mm, over the last five days. Weather forecasts indicate approximately 12 mm of rainfall through the weekend, with an additional 10 mm anticipated next week for the Lake Simcoe region. The water levels on Lake Simcoe are subject to increase based on the rainfall that is received.
The current forecast indicates westerly winds today in a range of 15-16 km/hr with gusts up to 27-30 km/hr. Winds are expected to shift to the south on Saturday with gusts up to 33-44 km/hr, coinciding with anticipated Saturday rainfall of 7.5-12 mm. Winds will ease through Sunday and into next week with gusts generally in the 14-35 km/hr range. Winds acting on the high lake levels create waves, increasing the risk and extent of shoreline flooding that is already occurring.
Rainfall combined with flows working through the system are resulting in continued high water levels on Lake Simcoe. These higher-than-average water levels are causing continued flooding in some areas and are posing a significant risk of flooding along the Lake Simcoe Shoreline. Flooding is occuring in low-lying shoreline areas, including Innisfil, Georgina, Ramara, Barrie, and Orillia. There is a high risk of dikes overtopping and failing in the Keswick, Colbar and Bradford polders. There have been reports of breaches of the dikes in East Gwillimbury. Depending on the wind conditions, there may be localized storm surge/seiche effects, leading to increased flooding.
Lake Simcoe water level
Currently the lake level is approximately 22 centimetres higher than the average for this time of the year. Parks Canada has indicated outflows from Lake Simcoe are maximized. The current water level in Lake Simcoe is 219.32 m and is expected to remain above average in the coming weeks and will be subject to increases based on rainfall that is received.
The following is a summary of the recent water levels on Lake Simcoe:
May 8, 2026 (Current): 219.32 m
May 5, 2026: 219.35 m
May 2, 2026: 219.38 m
April 20, 2026: 219.41 m
April 10, 2026: 219.01 m
March 31, 2026: 219.06 m
Water safety
Exercise extreme caution around all bodies of water. Alert any children under your care to stay away from all watercourses and other bodies of water and and supervise their activities.
Residents, especially in the historically flood-prone areas, are advised to take necessary precautions to protect themselves, their pets, and their property. Municipalities and property owners in low-lying shoreline areas should prepare for flooding and be advised that sandbagging may be needed. Evacuation of residents from low-lying areas may become necessary should dikes or berms in the Keswick, Colbar and Bradford polders fail or overtop.
This Shoreline Hazard Watch – High Risk will be in effect through May 29, 2026, at noon or until otherwise updated. This replaces the Shoreline Hazard Watch – High Risk statement issued on April 30, 2026.
For further information, contact duty officer Khashayar Saniei.