Rainfall is forecast for the Lake Simcoe watershed over the next five days. Total rainfall amounts of 30–40 mm are expected over five days, beginning today (Thursday), with locally higher amounts possible where thunderstorms occur. Temperatures will warm up on Friday, reaching 15 to 20°C, before the main rainfall develops on Saturday.
Currently, the water level in Lake Simcoe is sitting at 219.12 m, which is above average for this time of year, and the lake level has been rising steadily. The current lake level is higher than typical for early spring. A further rise in the lake level is anticipated over the weekend and early next week due to the anticipated rainfall.
The higher-than-average water levels, combined with anticipated rainfall, warm temperatures and wind, are posing a moderate risk of shoreline flooding, localized minor storm surge, ice breakup and ice pile-up along the Lake Simcoe shoreline. There is a risk of flooding adjacent to the lake in low-lying areas due to wind and wave impacts and continued elevated flows in the system. There is also a moderate risk to the low-lying Keswick, Kolbar and Bradford polders due to increased lake levels acting on the dikes and dams in the area.
Water safety
Exercise extreme caution around all bodies of water. Alert any children under your care to stay away from all watercourses and other bodies of water; and supervise their activities.
Residents, especially in the historically flood-prone areas, are advised to take necessary precautions to protect themselves, their pets, and their property.
This Shoreline Hazard Watch – Moderate Risk Statement replaces the Lake Simcoe Shoreline Status: Low Risk and will be in effect through Thursday, April 16, 2026 at noon or until otherwise updated.