The Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority advises that the water levels in Lake Simcoe are currently 219.40 m and are approximately 30 cm above average for this time of year.
The lake level appears to be holding and outflows from Lake Simcoe are maximized. However, the water levels in the lake remain dependent on rainfall that is received and could increase in response to further rain. Shoreline flooding is occurring in low-lying areas close to the lake and water levels are expected to remain higher than average in the coming weeks.
The Lake Simcoe watershed has received 20-40 mm of rainfall over the last 5 days. Weather forecasts are predicting approximately 5 mm of rainfall through the weekend, with an additional 10–20 mm next week for the Lake Simcoe region. The water levels on Lake Simcoe are subject to the rainfall that is received.
The current forecast indicates winds from the northwest today in a range of 16–21 km/hr with gusts up to 32–36 km/hr. Winds will continue from the west and northwest through the weekend with gusts up to 36 km/hr. Winds acting on the high lake levels create waves, increasing the risk and extent of shoreline flooding that is already occurring.
Rainfall combined with flows working through the system are resulting in continued high water levels on Lake Simcoe. These higher-than-average water levels are causing continued flooding in some areas and are posing a significant risk of flooding along the Lake Simcoe Shoreline. Flooding is occurring in low-lying shoreline areas, including Innisfil, Georgina, Ramara, Barrie, and Orillia. There is a high risk of dikes overtopping and failing in the Keswick, Colbar and Bradford polders. There have been reports of breaches of the dikes in East Gwillimbury. Depending on the wind conditions, there may be localized storm surge/seiche effects, leading to increased flooding.
Lake Simcoe water level
Currently the lake level is approximately 30 centimetres higher than the average for this time of the year. Parks Canada has indicated outflows from Lake Simcoe are maximized. The current water level in Lake Simcoe is 219.40 m and is expected to remain above average in the coming weeks and will be subject to increases based on rainfall that is received.
The following is a summary of the recent water levels on Lake Simcoe:
April 30, 2026 (Current): 219.40 m
April 26, 2026: 219.41 m
April 19, 2026: 219.39 m
April 16, 2026: 219.34 m
April 8, 2026: 219.19 m
March 31, 2026: 219.06 m
Water safety
Exercise extreme caution around all bodies of water. Alert any children under your care to stay away from all watercourses and other bodies of water; and supervise their activities.
Residents, especially in the historically flood-prone areas, are advised to take necessary precautions to protect themselves, their pets, and their property. Municipalities and property owners in low-lying shoreline areas should prepare for flooding and be advised that sandbagging may be needed. Evacuation of residents from low-lying areas may become necessary should dikes or berms in the Keswick, Colbar and Bradford polders fail or overtop.
This Shoreline Hazard Watch – High Risk will be in effect through May 22, 2026, or until otherwise updated. This replaces the Shoreline Hazard Watch – High Risk statement issued on April 24, 2026.
For further information, contact Philip Thase at 905-895-1281.